Tuesday, September 25, 2007

More on LIMITS

I'm probably doing it wrong, but I see trailing limits as a glass half-empty strategy. You
My perspective is glass half-full. Right now my strategy is to set limit orders for pre-definted exit points (profit). As such, I posted another 12% in LLNW and sold half. Luckily we're on the west coast, so I can check the market in the morning before going to work and set limits for the day based on the direction I think things might go.
From what I'm seeing I think the end of the week could see things coming back down a bit. Tomorrow could be the turning point. LLNW seems to track the market nicely, although not directly. I was losing last week when everyone else was gaining and now vice-versa - things were a little delayed. Wonder how many times I can pull this off... It'll probly stop working as soon as I get ballsy with it.

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Trailing Limits

A friend of mine had a great trailing limit success story. Personally - I tried it and I'm pissed. I missed out on a solid 8% on AAPL because I set a limit that barely got touched and then the stock shot back up. Now perhaps I did it wrong... OK, most likely I did it wrong. But I now see all too clearly the potential for lost opportunity... sure you lock in some gains, but you run the risk of seriously missing out.
There's obviously no substitute for watching a stock, but if you can't, I'm starting to think strategic trailing limit orders are more appropriate than a standard trailing limit. Such as if you know a big announcement is coming, it'd be good to set them the night before, etc. I'm also thinking that in some cases it might be good to set trailing limits on only a portion of your holdings... say half. That way you sort of hedge your bet... take some profits on the upswings, but maintain some holding just in case it decides to reverse on you before you can buy back in. I mean, you believe that overall your holdings will go up with time anyway, right? ;)
That philosophy would not have served me as well with LLNW. I bought in at 8.20, it shot up to 9.20 in 5 days, and then dropped. I locked in by selling all shares on the downturn and have recently bought back in hoping for a repeat - something I had not planned on doing originally. However, it dropped well below my original 8.20 and is having trouble maintaining even that level, so I basically got lucky with my decision to sell all. A smarter approach would be to lock in a profit on a portion of my holdings, but maintain a smaller portion in case it continued up. Since I'm back in again, I would have just added to the position on the low, improving my cost basis. You just don't make as much on each sale, but it takes some of the upside risk out.

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Low Cost WiMax Play

As you know, I've been following the WiMax industry for a while. I think Clearwire is a really good buy at around $20. If it goes back down there I'll buy it. It may not get there now that the fed has cut interest rates, but anything close to that would probably be safe in the long-term.
Instead of the CLWR rollercoaster ride, I just bought Airspan Networks at $2.17. This company is 100% focused on wireless infrastructure and has recently won several contracts for WiMax solutions around the world. They posted a wider loss for Q2, which is responsible for the current low price of this stock, citing decreased demand for their WiFi products.
However, with the increased focus on WiMax deployment around the world, they have tons of room to grow. To top it off, they just announced the world's first universal mobile wimax modem for a laptop. Imagine being able to access high speed internet while traveling at 60mph (in your car, on the bus or train). The only other company with this technology is Motorola, but Airspan's modem will work with WiMax on any spectrum, while the Motorola card is only set to work with Clearwire/Sprint's spectrum at 2.5GHz. With Airspan, we're talking worldwide interoperability here!
A major competitor of Airspan with regard to infrastructure rollout is Alvarion. This company has also been signing contracts left and right to roll out WiMax around the world. The $30 stock price and the lack of a low place to get in has shyed me away from it for right now. However, I will be keeping an eye on this one as well.
The low $2 price on this stock, combined with the increased WiMax rollouts throughout the world should make this stock a no-brainer!

Friday, September 7, 2007

Current Picks

I'm certainly no economist, but here's my take:

Consumer products: thumbs down (with notable exceptions - AAPL)
Service providers: thumbs up (especially energy and technology)
Today I put in limit orders for FTEK and LVLT. Keeping an eye on NAT.

FuelTech - They make scrubbers for power plants. As the global warming debate keeps getting hotter and the pressure is on to make power production cleaner, FTEK has no place to go but up. Small company, but great prospects. They're the leader in the field and already have their foot in the door in China. If the carbon credit market idea takes off, FTEK's services will more than pay for themselves for most of the world's non-nuclear power plants. So what you get is increased worldwide multi-million-dollar installations AND continued service contracts.

Nordic American Tanker - what a healthy dividend! Last quarter's dividend was $1.17. If you own 100 shares, that's over $100 EACH QUARTER in dividend alone. NAT is one of the largest crude oil shipping companies in the world. Get in on NAT at a nice low price and ride it through the dividends. Talk about a stock that's not going anywhere. As far as I can tell, NAT is the safest bet you can make right now - almost completely independent of any of the major indices. I'm just waiting for that perfect price and I think it's coming soon.

Level 3 Communications - I'll be honest, I don't know a lot about this company. Their major business is providing infrastructure for the internet. As bandwidth needs increase, so does their business. I'm taking this one as a short-term play, similar to LLNW. Consensus is it's a good company with a solid customer base, but the price seems to be following the market ups and downs. In addition, the low price (<$5) tends to magnify the swings. Right now they're nearing a low point with plenty of support at higher prices. I like these stocks under $10 because small fluctuations in price = high % changes.
This thread lists some good ideas for getting lower commission trades.


I took profits on LLNW yesterday when it started to drop. Missed the high by 1%...
I also got out of AAPL for now... can't say I did as well with that one this time around. The rollercoaster is good as long as you can react. Buy on the lows, sell on the news.

I've been looking more into trailing limits and they can be a good thing I think... trying to learn more about how to set limits. Previously I thought there was no substitute for just watching the stock. Then I realized there's no way in hell I'm going to get up at 5AM to catch the opening of the market.


I'm kind of digging the "daily average volatility" method. Seems like just as good a method as anything else. Plus I like science.

Precisely Detect Cancer Without Drawing Blood

Purdue researchers develop technology to detect cancer by scanning surface veins

Philip Low andWei He (seated)
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caption below

A new technology for cancer detection that eliminates the need for drawing blood has been developed by Purdue University researchers.

Researchers from Purdue's Cancer Center, Department of Chemistry and Weldon School of Biomedical Engineering collaborated with cancer and biotechnology experts from the Mayo Clinic to develop technology to detect tumor cells within the human body. By shining a laser on surface veins, such as those on the wrist and inside the cheek, researchers are able to reveal and count circulating tumor cells.